The Trump effect beyond the hysteria
Donald Trump’s influence looms large, especially for many watching from Europe, where he is often seen as a deeply polarizing and destabilizing figure. His rhetoric and actions have disrupted norms and stirred anxieties about the future of democracy and global stability. While it’s natural to feel concern—perhaps even dread—about the potential return of his influence, we must avoid letting fear spiral into despair. Trump, though undeniably impactful, is not an unstoppable force; rather, he reflects larger shifts already underway in the United States. By stepping back, we can see how his influence, though troubling, is just one part of a broader story, one where the forces shaping America run deeper than any one individual.
The United States’ political system, for all its dramatic moments, is built with substantial checks and balances. As political analyst George Friedman suggests in The Storm Before the Calm, while individual presidents can make a loud impact, their ability to enact lasting structural change is limited. Congress, the courts, and even state governments create a system where radical shifts often face substantial resistance. Trump, despite his ambitions and disruptive rhetoric, is no different. Whatever changes he manages to introduce tend to be tempered, either by judicial review, congressional opposition, or even internal party politics. The structure resists drastic change, and in many ways, this structure is part of why America remains steady amid periods of intense political theatre.
Yet, beneath the surface, deeper and more irreversible trends are reshaping the American landscape. Trump’s rise is less a cause of these shifts and more of a symptom. The American empire, as Friedman and others have argued, is in a slow decline—a reality that is not unique to the U.S. but is part of the natural ebb and flow of global powers throughout history. The American century saw tremendous expansion and influence, yet such dominance is challenging to sustain. The U.S. faces pressures from within and without: economic challenges, cultural divides, and the shifting power dynamics on the global stage. Trump’s impact, rather than redirecting the course, seems more to accelerate this gradual retreat from the global stage. Even without his presence, the American empire would still be entering a phase of retraction, stepping back as other nations, especially in Asia, begin to assert themselves.
For Europe and the United Kingdom, this decline signals a call to action. For too long, reliance on the U.S. as a stabilizing force and security provider has been the norm. Now, however, the cracks in American influence are becoming harder to ignore. European countries face the task of defining their policies and security measures independently, developing a cohesive vision for their own futures rather than waiting on Washington to lead the way. It’s a challenging shift, but it’s also an opportunity—a chance for Europe to step out from America’s shadow and build its own, distinct path.
Within the U.S., there’s another layer of division that has grown increasingly difficult to reconcile. Friedman speaks to the existence of “two Americas,” a reality in which the economic, cultural, and social experiences of Americans in different regions and demographics are worlds apart. There’s a clear divide, not just between conservatives and liberals but between those who feel a sense of loss and those who feel a sense of possibility. Trump’s appeal, particularly among older generations, taps into a fear of the unfamiliar, the sense that traditional values and identities are slipping away. His message resonates because it validates the anxieties of those who see rapid change as a threat. This generational divide is as much about identity as it is about politics, rooted in an instinctive resistance to change—and, on a deeper level, an existential fear of mortality and the unknown.
The real impact of Trump’s era, then, is not primarily political or geopolitical but cultural. He has introduced a mode of discourse in which fear, anger, and division are not just inevitable but central. This culture of heightened negativity has permeated beyond American borders, creating a sense of instability that many struggle to navigate. For Europe and the world, watching America’s internal conflicts unfold in real-time can be unsettling. Yet, the challenge is to resist being drawn into this culture of despair. It’s essential to recognize the fears of those clinging to the past without allowing those fears to dictate the future.
Looking ahead, the real answer lies with the younger generations. Young people today, both in America and Europe, are eager for a world that prioritizes inclusivity, innovation, and cooperation over division. They envision a future that breaks away from the rigid structures of the past, embracing diversity and progress. This generational shift is already underway, and it promises a world that is not bound by the limitations and fears of those before. The future will not be shaped by a single leader but by collective aspirations for a different kind of world.
Trump, in this context, becomes a figure in a much larger story—an actor in a script that has been written over decades, in which America, like all empires before it, must grapple with its limitations and divisions. The role of Europe and the wider world is not to mirror America’s culture of fear but to forge a path based on resilience, cooperation, and hope. Fear may be natural, but we must keep it in proportion, understanding the changes we witness without succumbing to despair. In that balance lies the strength needed to navigate a world where the old orders are fading and new possibilities are emerging.
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